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New hotel coming to downtown Phoenix!

A new 11-story, 210-room Hampton Inn & Suites hotel is being developed at Central Avenue and Polk Street in downtown Phoenix...

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Will Home Sales and Prices Continue to Accelerate in 2017?

The days of multiple bids and offers that are typically way higher than a home’s asking price—you know, that stuff that we now consider to be normal in the housing biz—aren’t expected to disappear anytime soon. But here’s the good news: Things aren’t expected to get too much worse in 2017 either...

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Apartments sales hit record  $4.97B in 2016!

Sales of apartment complexes hit a record $4.97 billion in 2016, according to new numbers from ABI Multifamily...

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Developer plans high-rise apartments near ASU after $8.4M buy  on Mill Avenue!

A Chicago-based developer has bought two parcels near Arizona State University’s main campus Tempe and has plans to develop high-rise apartments...

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Federal Housing Administration to reduce annual insurance premiums, saving homeowners avg $500 this year!

U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro said on Monday the Federal Housing Administration will reduce the annual premiums most borrowers will pay by a quarter of a percent...

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Arizona bucket list: Places you have to go!

Arizona has many cool places to see, including one of the seven natural wonders of the World.

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Macerich plans renovations, upgrades at Scottsdale Fashion Square!

Macerich is planning a phased upgrade of Scottsdale Fashion Square to continue renovating the mall that is one of its best properties...

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Phoenix projected as number one US housing market for 2017!

Phoenix is projected as the top housing market in the country for next year, according to a new forecast report by Realtor.com...

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Scottsdale among most expensive in US for apartments but Phoenix still cheaper than other big cities!

Scottsdale is one of the most expensive U.S. cities to rent a two-bedroom apartment, according to new numbers from Zumper Inc., a San Francisco-based real estate startup specializing in apartment listings.

But overall, apartment rents in Phoenix and other cities in Maricopa County are relatively cheap compared to other big U.S. markets...

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Scottsdale selling WestWorld tent, the largest tent in the country!

The city of Scottsdale is selling off an iconic piece of its WestWorld event space...

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Design duo breaking ground on $1M condos in Old Town Scottsdale!

Steve and Wendy Voss are developing a dozen $1 million condos in Old Town Scottsdale...

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Project Watch: Take a look at all the ongoing development across the Valley!

Phoenix is a town built on real estate, and what nearly died during the Great Recession finally is starting to reboot...

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Arizona Center to get $25M facelift!

The Arizona Center — which has seen its ups and downs and changes in ownership since first being developed in 1990 — will undergo renovations starting next year...

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Apartments could replace Bashas’ center at Seventh Avenue, Osborn in Phoenix!

Another new apartment development could be coming to central Phoenix with plans to redevelop the Bashas’-anchored shopping center at Seventh Avenue and Osborn Road...

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26K SF mixed-use development taking over historic Roosevelt Row buildings!

Desert Viking Development has announced plans for a mixed-use project on 501 E. Roosevelt St., between Fifth and Sixth streets, totaling more than 26,000-square-feet...

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Phoenix sees sharp rise in home equity loans!

Home equity loans — which Valley residents used repeatedly in the run-up to the Great Recession — are back in style...

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Homebuilder enters Arizona market at 50,000-home Estrella development!

A Texas-based homebuilder is making its first foray into the Phoenix market at the mammoth 250,000-acre Estrella development in Goodyear...

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Apartments: 10,000 units being built, $1B in Q3 sales, 2-bedroom costs $2K in Scottsdale!

Apartments keep getting built, complexes keeping being sold and traded and rents keep on rising (mostly) in Phoenix and other U.S. markets...

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Apartments keep coming: More than 3,600 units under construction or planned in downtown Phoenix!

There are more than 3,600 new apartments under construction or planned for downtown Phoenix, according to a new report...

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New downtown apartment development sells fast for $22M!

One of downtown Phoenix’s newest apartment developments has sold for $21.8 million...

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New $47M infill condos hit Old Town Scottsdale market!

A new $47 million luxury condo development is hitting the market in Old Town Scottsdale...

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Architects to take over historic Phoenix building!

An international architecture firm has leased and will renovate a historic midcentury building in Phoenix...

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Phoenix housing market now among the best in the U.S!

Phoenix's housing market, after a tumultuous decade, is nearly back on top as the best in the U.S...

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Tech company expands in Phoenix, luring California tech workers to Valley!

Another company is expanding its technical, support and sales forces in the Phoenix area instead of California...

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Home builder buys 19 acres in north Mesa!

Maracay Homes has bought 18.9 acres in Mesa for $2.1 million...

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Phoenix ranked second-best metro area for homeowners!

The Phoenix metro area is the second-best in the nation for homeowners, according to a Bankrate.com report released Wednesday...

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City picks Trammell Crow bid again for big downtown redevelopment!

Trammell Crow Co. appears to be the preferred bidder — again — for the largest parcel of undeveloped land in downtown Phoenix...

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Developers bringing gated community to former nursery property in Phoenix!

Scottsdale developers Richard Felker and Rich Zacher have started construction on a new 44-home gated, semi-custom home development at 40th Street and Osborn Road in Phoenix...

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Infill condos, restaurant development slated for vacant Old Town Scottsdale land!

An infill condominium and retail development is slated for one of the few remaining empty lots in Old Town Scottsdale...

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Surprised? Scottsdale ranked in top 5 best cities for retirement!

Scottsdale was ranked one of the best cities in the nation to retire, according to financial website WalletHub’s annual listing...

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Phoenician resort could downsize golf courses for residential redevelopment!

The Phoenician Resort at the south foot of Camelback Mountain could downsize its golf courses from 27 to 18 holes as part of a potential redevelopment plan that could bring new high-end residential units to the property.

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Denver group buys apartments near ASU, light rail!

An apartment complex near Arizona State University’s main campus and the Metro light rail in Tempe has sold for $19.6 million...

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Apartments sales strongest in a decade, thousands of new units still hitting market !

Sales of apartment complexes in the Phoenix area posted their strongest quarter in a decade and since the 2008 recession...

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http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/07/26/apartments-sales-strongest-in-a-decade-thousands.html?ana=e_du_pub&s=article_du&ed=2016-07-26&u=QRyGuMzbJqnWGFCKNhP5Kw0f1d8287&t=1469574210&j=75190912


 

Phoenix among top cities for tech growth!

Phoenix is one of the top markets in North America for develop technology firms, according to a new report from CBRE...

Read the full article:

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/07/24/phoenix-among-top-cities-for-tech-growth.html?ana=e_du_pub&s=article_du&ed=2016-07-25&u=QRyGuMzbJqnWGFCKNhP5Kw0f1d8287&t=1469498222&j=75153002

What we learned from last week’s Fed rate hike

According to Inman:

  • The degree of current Fed accommodation is “moderate.”
  • Gradually moving toward balance makes sense, but accelerating the process does not.
  • Overseas currency moves will suppress U.S. inflation and growth.

It’s a little early to call an interest-rate top. Maybe two or three or four years too early.

However, looking back at the bond wreck since the election, it’s worth putting panic aside and to think for a minute or two.

The Fed’s Wednesday meeting

Working in reverse, the newest panic began after the Fed’s Wednesday meeting. The commentariat consensus has been a “hawkish” surprise in the Fed’s words and charts, in particular the scattergram showing a three-hike 2017 instead of two.

A harrumphing “B.S.!” to that. Nothing changed. Fed intentions are as gradual as ever. The forecast attached to its post-meeting statement — GDP (gross domestic product), inflation, unemployment — all as-were.

The scattergram of the future location of the Fed funds rate has been grossly misinterpreted. Dot-voters include all 12 regional Fed presidents: two are wild hawks with no business within 100 miles of a central bank; two more are permanent hawks; and another pair are newly fledged without compelling reason.

At minimum, toss out the top four dots and you get a much gentler future cycle. (Also toss out the super-dove, Bullard, who seems to think all of this is funny.)

Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s statement and post-meeting grilling by the press were well-done exercises in saying nothing about President-elect Donald Trump. The one useful inclusion: The degree of current Fed accommodation is “moderate.”

Gradually moving toward balance makes sense, but accelerating the process does not. The exact location of balance lies somewhere between maybe another 1 percent of hikes — or more and a recession.

Missing from the press conference — shame on you all! — not one question about the bond wreck to date.

We can assume the Fed takes some pleasure from long-term rates at last rising and the market chopping wood for the Fed. However…holy smokes, however…from a steady 1.50 percent 10-year last summer to 2.60 percent today? Yellen?

Also, might one of you have asked if the transition team has contacted the Fed? Eh?

What about the bond wreck?

The bond wreck is now global, triggering widespread currency and debt wrecks, while the sillies here admire a “strong dollar.”

The currency moves will suppress U.S. inflation and growth. The yen has lost 10 percent of its value, a theoretical help to Japan if the slide stops here, 117/$.

If it stops. Many nations, China included, are right on the edge of destabilization. The outside world does limit Fed action, which the Fed understands, spillovers from here to there causing unpleasant spillbacks from there to here.

The yield curve is always a guide, but it’s crucial during Fed tightening cycles. The Fed-sensitive 2-year T-note since summer has risen a half-percent, now pricing-in the Fed’s next hike. The 10-year T-note has risen twice that far.

New signs of inflation did this? Growth? There are no such signs. Twits insist that rising rates reflect rising expectations for inflation, but that is circular nonsense.

More significant, the 30-year T-bond has risen only 0.60 percent, and 10s have closed the 10s/30s spread from underneath (10s at 2.60 percent on Friday, 30s at 3.19 percent). One nearly perfect marker of an end to Fed tightening: when 30s stop moving and 10s close altogether from below.

Now all the way back to the election. Just exactly what happened by dawn the following day to cause this wreck?

Bonds were leaning the wrong way, a little. The ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) last summer mumbled intentions to let their bond yields rise a little, to restore some yield curve to benefit banks, pension funds and insurance companies, so less of their cash is spilling to our bonds. The election surprise pulled those things forward.

But this explosion? Danger in the world pushes money to bonds, not away — risks of war or default or depression.

Trump is a new kind of risk. A wild card. No way to measure the risk he brings. His stimulus proposals have poor chances in Congress — a big deficit add, zero.

The stock market is right that the easy stuff, deregulation and a business-friendly cabinet will add to profits. But growth, jobs, and incomes…? Hardly. That’s a long, difficult, productivity-enhancing road.

This bond wreck is overdone. Not a cycle top, but past halfway to one, and maybe a lot past halfway.

The 2-year T-note in the last year

The 2-year T-note in the last year

The 2-year T-note in the last year, showing the last leg up this week. Trump did this? No way. Nothing else did it, either. Feels panicky.

The 10-year T-note in the last year.

The 10-year T-note in the last year.

The 10-year T-note in the last year. Compare to 30-year bonds, next chart following.

30-year bonds

30-year bonds

30-year bonds — a bad month, but less magnitude than 10s, and no damage at all in the last week.

The "damned little dots."

The “damned little dots.”

The “damned little dots.” Erase at least the top four, and you get a very different picture.

Average wages

Average wages

Wages are doing ever-so-slightly better, but there is nothing hazardous here.

Personal consumption expenditures

Personal consumption expenditures

The Fed may be acting as though 2 percent is a cap instead of a target. There is no sign of inflation crossing 2 percent.

Lou Barnes is a mortgage broker based in Boulder, Colorado.

 

What we learned from last week’s Fed rate hike

  • The degree of current Fed accommodation is “moderate.”
  • Gradually moving toward balance makes sense, but accelerating the process does not.
  • Overseas currency moves will suppress U.S. inflation and growth.

It’s a little early to call an interest-rate top. Maybe two or three or four years too early.

However, looking back at the bond wreck since the election, it’s worth putting panic aside and to think for a minute or two.

The Fed’s Wednesday meeting

Working in reverse, the newest panic began after the Fed’s Wednesday meeting. The commentariat consensus has been a “hawkish” surprise in the Fed’s words and charts, in particular the scattergram showing a three-hike 2017 instead of two.

A harrumphing “B.S.!” to that. Nothing changed. Fed intentions are as gradual as ever. The forecast attached to its post-meeting statement — GDP (gross domestic product), inflation, unemployment — all as-were.

The scattergram of the future location of the Fed funds rate has been grossly misinterpreted. Dot-voters include all 12 regional Fed presidents: two are wild hawks with no business within 100 miles of a central bank; two more are permanent hawks; and another pair are newly fledged without compelling reason.

At minimum, toss out the top four dots and you get a much gentler future cycle. (Also toss out the super-dove, Bullard, who seems to think all of this is funny.)

Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s statement and post-meeting grilling by the press were well-done exercises in saying nothing about President-elect Donald Trump. The one useful inclusion: The degree of current Fed accommodation is “moderate.”

Gradually moving toward balance makes sense, but accelerating the process does not. The exact location of balance lies somewhere between maybe another 1 percent of hikes — or more and a recession.

Missing from the press conference — shame on you all! — not one question about the bond wreck to date.

We can assume the Fed takes some pleasure from long-term rates at last rising and the market chopping wood for the Fed. However…holy smokes, however…from a steady 1.50 percent 10-year last summer to 2.60 percent today? Yellen?

Also, might one of you have asked if the transition team has contacted the Fed? Eh?

What about the bond wreck?

The bond wreck is now global, triggering widespread currency and debt wrecks, while the sillies here admire a “strong dollar.”

The currency moves will suppress U.S. inflation and growth. The yen has lost 10 percent of its value, a theoretical help to Japan if the slide stops here, 117/$.

If it stops. Many nations, China included, are right on the edge of destabilization. The outside world does limit Fed action, which the Fed understands, spillovers from here to there causing unpleasant spillbacks from there to here.

The yield curve is always a guide, but it’s crucial during Fed tightening cycles. The Fed-sensitive 2-year T-note since summer has risen a half-percent, now pricing-in the Fed’s next hike. The 10-year T-note has risen twice that far.

New signs of inflation did this? Growth? There are no such signs. Twits insist that rising rates reflect rising expectations for inflation, but that is circular nonsense.

More significant, the 30-year T-bond has risen only 0.60 percent, and 10s have closed the 10s/30s spread from underneath (10s at 2.60 percent on Friday, 30s at 3.19 percent). One nearly perfect marker of an end to Fed tightening: when 30s stop moving and 10s close altogether from below.

Now all the way back to the election. Just exactly what happened by dawn the following day to cause this wreck?

Bonds were leaning the wrong way, a little. The ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) last summer mumbled intentions to let their bond yields rise a little, to restore some yield curve to benefit banks, pension funds and insurance companies, so less of their cash is spilling to our bonds. The election surprise pulled those things forward.

But this explosion? Danger in the world pushes money to bonds, not away — risks of war or default or depression.

Trump is a new kind of risk. A wild card. No way to measure the risk he brings. His stimulus proposals have poor chances in Congress — a big deficit add, zero.

The stock market is right that the easy stuff, deregulation and a business-friendly cabinet will add to profits. But growth, jobs, and incomes…? Hardly. That’s a long, difficult, productivity-enhancing road.

This bond wreck is overdone. Not a cycle top, but past halfway to one, and maybe a lot past halfway.

The 2-year T-note in the last year

The 2-year T-note in the last year

The 2-year T-note in the last year, showing the last leg up this week. Trump did this? No way. Nothing else did it, either. Feels panicky.

The 10-year T-note in the last year.

The 10-year T-note in the last year.

The 10-year T-note in the last year. Compare to 30-year bonds, next chart following.

30-year bonds

30-year bonds

30-year bonds — a bad month, but less magnitude than 10s, and no damage at all in the last week.

The "damned little dots."

The “damned little dots.”

The “damned little dots.” Erase at least the top four, and you get a very different picture.

Average wages

Average wages

Wages are doing ever-so-slightly better, but there is nothing hazardous here.

Personal consumption expenditures

Personal consumption expenditures

The Fed may be acting as though 2 percent is a cap instead of a target. There is no sign of inflation crossing 2 percent.

Lou Barnes is a mortgage broker based in Boulder, Colorado.